Spatial-temporal Analysis of Tuberculosis at the Community Level in the Baoshan District,Shanghai 2014–2019

<正>Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the primary bacteria that leads to human tuberculosis(TB),which usually affects the pulmonary organs. TB is one of the top 10 causes of death worldwide;however, China is one of eight countries that together account for two-thirds of the total number of cases globally.     

SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

1H nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabolic profiling of cerebrospinal fluid to identify metabolic features and markers for tuberculosis meningitis

BackgroundTuberculosis meningitis (TBM) is the most severe form of tuberculosis, and currently lacks efficient diagnostic approaches. Metabolomics has the potential to differentiate patients with TBM from those with other forms of meningitis and meningitis-negative individuals. However, no systemic metabolomics research has compared the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of these patients.Methods¹H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) was used for CSF metabolic profiling. Principal component analysis and orthogonal signal correction-partial least squares-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) were used to screen for important variables. The Human Metabolome Database was used to identify metabolites, and MetaboAnalyst 4.0 was used for pathway analysis and over-representation analysis.ResultsOPLS-DA modeling could distinguish TBM from other forms of meningitis, and several significantly changed metabolites were identified. Additionally, 23, 6, and 21 metabolites were able to differentiate TBM from viral meningitis, bacterial meningitis, and meningitis-negative groups, respectively. Pathway analysis indicated that these metabolites were mainly involved in carbohydrate and amino acid metabolism, and over-representation analysis indicated that some of these pathways were over-represented.ConclusionsThe metabolites identified have the potential to serve as biomarkers for TBM diagnosis, and carbohydrate and amino acid metabolism are perturbed in the CSF of patents with TBM. Metabolomics is a valuable approach for screening TBM biomarkers. With further investigation, the metabolites identified in this study could aid in TBM diagnosis.     

2009-2019年西安市肺结核流行特征及治疗转归分析

目的 了解2009-2019年西安市肺结核的流行特征及治疗转归情况，为完善西安市肺结核防治策略提供依据。方法 收集2009-2019年《传染病信息管理系统》中登记的肺结核患者病案信息数据，通过描述性研究方法对肺结核流行病学特征和治疗转归情况进行分析。结果 2009-2019年间西安市肺结核年平均发病率为49.06/10万。郊县、郊区、城区肺结核年平均发病率分别为54.13/10万、47.46/10万和46.19/10万；男性发病率是女性的1.85倍。职业分布排在前5位的为农民（47.48%），家政、家务及待业（14.65%），离退人员（9.55%），学生（8.63%）和工人（5.23%）。利福平敏感或耐药性未知患者的成功治疗率平均为98.03%，利福平耐药患者治疗成功率为51.47%。结论 西安市近年来肺结核发病率和治疗率呈增长趋势，利福平耐药患者治疗成功率较低，要加强对重点人群的健康促进工作，加大肺结核发现力度及患者治疗管理工作。     

肺结核病人健康教育现状调查与影响因素分析

目的　调查活动性肺结核病人在诊断前接受结核病知识的教育现状 ,分析病人接受结核病知识与社会经济因素的影响。方法　对 2 0 0 0年全国结核病流行病学抽样调查中的 1 2 78名活动性肺结核病人进行社会经济个案调查 ,调查以问卷的形式进行。结果　 1 2 78例肺结核病人在诊断前有 5 1 4例接受过不同形式的健康教育 ,占 40 2 % ,男性接受健康教育比例为 41 8% ,女性为 3 6 9%。各年龄组接受健康教育比例 <1 5岁组最低为2 5 9% ,其次是 65～年龄组为 3 0 9%。随着病人文化程度的增高和家庭人均年收入的增高 ,接受健康教育比例增高。肺结核病人各种职业的分类中 ,无工作者接受健康教育比例最低为 3 5 5 % ,其次为农林牧渔劳动者。按照病人是否有症状、有症状后是否就诊及最后诊断为肺结核病人的 3个过程接受不同形式的健康教育的频率 ,均以广播电视、健康教育和亲友教育为主。结论　在开展健康教育活动中 ,应注意对儿童和老年人群 ,对于文化程度低、家庭经济收入低、无工作者和农林牧渔劳动者等重点人群的教育     

Pyrazinamide-monoresistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States

Mycobacterium bovis is naturally resistant to the antituberculosis drug pyrazinamide (PZA). To determine whether all Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates demonstrating PZA monoresistance were truly M. bovis, we examined the phenotype and genotype of isolates reported as PZA monoresistant in five counties in California from January 1996 through June 1999. Isolates reported by local laboratories to be PZA monoresistant were sent to the state reference laboratory for repeat susceptibility testing using the BACTEC radiometric method and to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for pncA sequencing and PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis of the oxyR gene. Of 1,916 isolates, 14 were reported as PZA monoresistant and 11 were available for retesting. On repeat testing, 6 of the 11 isolates were identified as PZA-susceptible M. tuberculosis, 1 was identified as PZA-monoresistant M. bovis, and 1 was identified as M. bovis BCG. The three remaining isolates were identified as PZA-monoresistant M. tuberculosis. Sequencing of the pncA and oxyR genes genotypically confirmed the two M. bovis and the six susceptible M. tuberculosis species. Each of the three PZA-monoresistant M. tuberculosis isolates had different, previously unreported, pncA gene mutations: a 24-bp deletion in frame after codon 88, a base substitution at codon 104 (Ser104Cys), and a base substitution at codon 90 (Ile90Ser). This study demonstrates that PZA monoresistance is not an absolute marker of M. bovis species but may also occur in M. tuberculosis, associated with a number of different mutational events in the pncA gene. It is the first report of PZA-monoresistant M. tuberculosis in the United States.     

天津市新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学调查报告质量分析

目的 通过分析天津市128例新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎)确诊病例流行病学调查报告的书写质量,了解现场流行病学调查报告中存在的问题,为探索完善的新发传染病调查报告提供科学依据。方法 按照国家卫生健康委发布的《新型冠状病毒肺炎防控方案》的要求,适时制定修正天津市新冠肺炎个案流行病学调查流程。描述涉及书写质量的核心指标26项,采用χ²检验进行率的比较及趋势性检验。结果 128份调查报告均包括前言、基本信息、发病及就诊情况、流行病学调查、标本采集和实验室检测、已采取的措施及下一步工作建议七部分内容,结构完整率100.00%。6.25%(8/128)的报告未描述既往病史;23.44%(30/128)的报告对发病及就诊过程未进行详细描述;59.38%(76/128)的报告流行病学调查关键信息不详细;71.09%(91/128)的报告未详细描述病例的标本采集和实验室检测结果;宝坻区报告中发病及就诊过程、流行病学调查关键信息以及实验室检测等问题数随时间推移呈下降趋势;聚集病例组与非聚集病例组流行病学调查报告基本信息完整率差异有统计学意义(χ²=4.284,P=0.038)。结论 应对突发公共卫生事件时,建立调查报告质量管理体系,能提高流行病学调查和报告的质量,有助于后续的流行病学分析及防控措施的制定。     

云南省病原学阳性肺结核患者总延迟变化趋势

  目的  分析“十一五”“十二五”和“十三五”中国结核病防治规划期间云南省病原学阳性肺结核患者总延迟时间的变化趋势,获得影响总延迟发生的影响因素,为减少总延迟的发生提供依据。  方法  利用《结核病管理信息系统》中登记报告的云南省2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年病原学阳性肺结核患者的病案资料。描述最终纳入研究患者的人口学特征、延迟特征。构成比的时间趋势检验用χ2趋势检验,采用Kaplan-Meier法进行组间患者总延迟的比较,估计生存概率并绘制生存函数曲线,用Cox比例风险模型进行患者总延迟发生的多因素分析。  结果  云南省病原学阳性肺结核患者的总延迟整体呈下降趋势,且下降趋势与就诊延迟相似。总延迟中位数由2005年的94 d降至2020年的33 d,2020年患者确诊并接受治疗的概率较2005年增长了2.359倍,不同特征患者的总延迟天数均呈下降趋势。多因素回归分析结果显示,除年份外,女性、高年龄、农民、少数民族、流动人口和复治患者也是发生总延迟的危险因素。  结论  在云南省结核病防控措施的实行下,病原学阳性肺结核患者总延迟天数下降,有效控制了结核病疫情的发展。应侧重于降低总延迟天数较高的危险人群的就诊延迟, 寻求符合成本-效益的主动筛查方式,进一步控制结核病疫情发展。